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Riley
Grand Poobah Joined: January-19-2004 Location: Portland, ME Status: Offline Points: 7954 |
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Eric, if you look at our parent's generation, buying a house was always a safe investment because they crept up slowly in value over many years. I think a big reason for that was lending was done locally by community banks. A number of things have caused these wild swings in prices we've seen since the 1980's and some people have bought property and watched it double in price in 4 years, while others have seen it lose half its value in the same period or stay flat over several decades. In New Englad we had a worse real estate bubble in the 1990's than we have now, although this one is still bad. Much of the same things led up to both of them. The 1990's was so bad I didn't think it could ever repeat itself, but it did.
Your house is your house. You bought it to live in. Until you sell it, the gains or losses are only on paper. |
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63 Skier
Grand Poobah Joined: October-06-2006 Location: Concord, NH Status: Offline Points: 4269 |
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Definitely. We went to pay for service trash pickup, we have to buy garbage bags to put at the curb, can't just use your own bags. I like it, we pay more attention and I'm sure a lot of other people do too. In NH we have no income tax so property tax has to pay for a lot of things, most notably schools. The bulk of the budget debate always revolves around schools, it's incredibly hard for a town to fund their schools in a way that satisfies all the requirements.
Again on your house - the lost value is on paper only unless you sell (just like any investment). Do you seriously think it won't regain it's value? |
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'63 American Skier - '98 Sport Nautique
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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at the time i thought i would be near the 300k mark now, because i bought it stripped out...no deck no fireplace stuff like that, I added a 3rd bedroom....and at the time i bought it as an investment obviously i wasnt married at the time, but im right back at the 150 mark.
do i really think it will come back.....not in my lifetime, relly looking into the crystal ball of the past....terrible investment 63, on the school thing coming up with 450.00 so my daughter can swim??????? property taxes are increasing, being assessed, for public property???? the municipalities are out of moola..this all goes back to a firm, city income tax generating base....no industry/business, no taxes, so you pay out of pocket and most dont see it that way |
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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Bruce, they keep price slashing in the neighborhood, some have 2 mortgages...the price slashing and lack of competition (or 2 many homes not enough bodies) is driving the price down?????
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Eric, Having just sold a property, I feel your frustration, but no one screwed you, houses are a commodity and subject to price fluctuations just like oil, bread, milk or gold. At least you had a place to live while the fluctuations were taking place. You can blame big government for telling us all we DESERVED a home weather we could afford it or not. They made the money so easy to get that prices went artificially high ( I heard yesterday that they are probably still about 20% above where they should be according to inflation adjusted historic values) There is always risk when purchasing anything that its worth will change. Life has risks, that is what makes it interesting.
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Just wait and see what our CC's are worth when gas hits 5$ a gallon.
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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Im not crying in anyway, I have a roof overmyhead....lol, just making an example of lifes mysteries, I came in naked and I'll be leaving naked.
I really dont blame the gov, it all starts at the consumer on everyday choices and being wise. I refuse to shop at Walmart, I will drive an extra 5 miles to get what i need, I dont purchase fuel from BP, just because..and you all know i wont plop any cash down on a jap pos, obviously it is almost impossible to purchase something that is not made in China, but its the attitude i carry. Walmart comes in sets up, pays their employees minimum wage, 39 hours to avoid full time laws and knocks every small business on its ass within a 5 mile radius....just like a tornado...Bad attitude, not really.The generations before me sacrificed their lives, scrimped and saved to make this country what it was...it only took merely 15 years to fck it up. I cant really say the government fcd it up, I think we the people did |
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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Dave, I take it you didnt listen to that video?
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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What the video described would inflate the value of your house as an effect of massive deflation of the dollar. You can feel good, if the video is correct your house could be worth millions in no time.
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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yeah, needless to say, one of those millions might buy a used car lol
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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Swatkinz
Platinum Member Joined: December-03-2003 Location: Lexington, SC Status: Offline Points: 1307 |
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Eric, I feel your pain with the real estate investment. I have an investment condo in Myrtle Beach, SC. After a few month on the market with what I figured was a pretty attractive asking price, I received an offer on Monday at 50% of what I paid for it 5 years ago and significantly less than the listing price. The offer was rescinded before I could accept because of the influx of other units some of which are foreclosures. Tough times with real estate man!
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Steve
2011 Sport/Air 200 Excalibur 343 2017 Boatmate Tandem Axle Trailer Former CC owner (77, 80, 95, 88, all SNs) Former Malibu owner (07, 09) |
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Riley
Grand Poobah Joined: January-19-2004 Location: Portland, ME Status: Offline Points: 7954 |
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Timing is everything. I bought a multi in 1985 for $130k. By 1988, it was worth $190k. My wife thought we should sell as our first kid had arrived and she thought tenants were a PIA. I wanted to keep it as I thought it would lead to early retirement. By 1991 it was worth $100k and had become a major head ache as the rental market had gotten so poor. We finally were able to unload it in 1998 for $150k after 10 years of constant headches. It went up $20k in 13 years. The guy we sold it to, sold it 3 years later for $350K.
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Waterdog
Grand Poobah Joined: April-27-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2020 |
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Eric,
Way back in the 70's I use to say I came into the world naked so the cloths on my back are profit. I had forgot that until I read what you wrote! |
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63 Skier
Grand Poobah Joined: October-06-2006 Location: Concord, NH Status: Offline Points: 4269 |
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But .... someone with cash will go in and buy a bunch of those units, rent what they can, sit on the investment, and make a lot of money at some point in the next 10 years. I'm very pessimistic about the long term future of our economy, but that doesn't mean we won't see more up and down cycles in the meantime. To think that real estate won't rebound is to simply ignore history, in the late '80's real estate was never going to recover, same in the '90's downturn, same thing is being said now. It will recover, depending on the region it may take longer. So, if you have a paper loss and can hang on, do so and you should do well in the future. The key, as Bruce illustrated with his experience, is that when you see a profit you should remember how you feel now and take it, don't try to wait for a bigger gain. Just my 2 cents |
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'63 American Skier - '98 Sport Nautique
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JoeinNY
Grand Poobah Joined: October-19-2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 5698 |
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The housing boom was a totally foreseeable result of the federal funds rate being lowered to and kept at historically low levels. This was done by Alan Greenspan who knew better but was so invested in his support of the Bush era tax cuts as being economic stimulus that he classicaly overused what has been the only real effective economic stimulus to try and provide the economic growth he had predicted.
The resulting low morgage rates (and tanking stock market) made real estate the only attractive investment.. and ultimately inflated the value of real estate to points where they would be completely unattractive and unobtainable at any reasonable morgage rates. add to that classic government deregulation of the entire morgage apparatus that was then being used by the wall street types as a place to rape and pillage in lieu of thier normal rape and pillage of our 401ks and retirement funds.. a bunch of sketchy loan officers, over eager real estate agents, and too many cable house flipping shows and if you couldn't see a bubble about to burst then you were watching too much cable news. You can choose to blame the government or not.. but what we pay them for is to manage our country to achieve our best interests... and in the case of the real estate bubble they were either criminal or completely inept. Or in Greenspan's case too much time as the most powerful man in the world had made him vane to the point where he broke the rules he himself had so carefully followed for 15 years prior. |
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Swatkinz
Platinum Member Joined: December-03-2003 Location: Lexington, SC Status: Offline Points: 1307 |
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I don't blame the government for the real estate losses i have and expect to experience in the coming months. The investments I made had risks associated and I knew that. I have made money in the past when the risks worked to my advantage. However, when banks make loans to investors like me, they are supposed to accept a certain amount of risk too. With the bailouts resulting from the real estate bubble bursting, the banks didn't lose like me the individual investor. I don't qualify for loan modification because it's investment property, refinancing isn't possible b/c of the reduction in equity/property valuation, the lender will not work with me to short sale my property without the property being in arrears for several months (I've basically been told that in order to short sale, I would need to significantly damage my credit for them to even "consider" allowing me to short sell). I wasn't brought up that way. It's taken me my whole professional life to get a stellar credit score and I'm not giving it up. Others may disagree with this and that's on them. I made the commitment to pay the note and I will do it, but it isn't right for the banks to accept a bailout for their financial mistakes and then not be willing to share in some of the losses or to at least work with people like me....I.e. modify the interest rate, something, anything My lender hasn't lost one dime on my property. Where is their risk? I realize that this is a specific situation, but it ain't right and there are many others like me. When I sell, I'll be coming up with significant coin to pay the difference b/w what I owe and what I'll sell it for. In fact, I participated in bailing them out by sending my tax money. It aint right...i say again it aint right |
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Steve
2011 Sport/Air 200 Excalibur 343 2017 Boatmate Tandem Axle Trailer Former CC owner (77, 80, 95, 88, all SNs) Former Malibu owner (07, 09) |
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63 Skier
Grand Poobah Joined: October-06-2006 Location: Concord, NH Status: Offline Points: 4269 |
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Steve - very well said!
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'63 American Skier - '98 Sport Nautique
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Riley
Grand Poobah Joined: January-19-2004 Location: Portland, ME Status: Offline Points: 7954 |
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Steve, what got me this time around was small investors like I was back in the 90's were bailed out, too. I would have never thought to go into the bank and renegotiate my terms because values had declined and I was underwater on an investment property. In the 90's, the banks would have wanted to wrap your equity in a non leveraged proerty that you owned if your investment property was failing. This time around, they didn't look at that, just the underwater property and if it was less costly to lower the principal and rate or foreclose.
What I've learned from the last 2 real estate bubbles is that when the major players start believing and buying into their own hype and BS, the end is near. |
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Waterdog
Grand Poobah Joined: April-27-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2020 |
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Sub prime = Barney Franks - Izz got me one of doz 140% gov a ment crib loans & got me a new car too! Izz got a hudert grand fo 129 a mont. Izz be movin up to a d/wide.
Makes me want to hurl. Ive been investing 20% of my pay for 31 years and I lost 40% of my retirement. Trust the goverment - Ask an Indian (i work for said gov) |
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Swatkinz
Platinum Member Joined: December-03-2003 Location: Lexington, SC Status: Offline Points: 1307 |
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Waiting on a rebound from a 5-10% drop in value is one thing...waiting on that property to rebound from 50% or more is something else. How long will it take a property valued at $90K today to be worth even $150K....how about $190 or $200K? Yes, it's only a paper loss until you sell, but continuing to hold it to avoid a paper loss is sometimes like spending $2 to save $1. I've been holding it for 5 years and the outlook is unchanged in my opinion. I do remember the profit and it did feel good. I'm bothered by the loss that I'm expecting, but i'm bothered more by the fact that uncle sam bails out these lenders at my expense and then those lenders don't reciprocate for people like me, that's all. I'm not asking for a give me or a handout. It would just be nice to have some consideration for other options. To add insult to injury, I was at a sales meeting last month in Arizona. At the same hotel we were meeting at, a bank was putting on a banquet for employees. Lavishly decorated. They even had a freakin ice sculpture. I asked the event planner just out of curiousity how much an ice sculpture like that costs and was told $4500. Made me question whether or not banks really needed that bailout, i gotta tell ya. They could afford the ice sculpture but can't afford nor will they even have a justified conversation with an honest customer unless that customer is late on their payments. That should be BS in anybody's book. I too am pessimistic with the long term economic outlook. This may sound selfish, but I'm focusing on Steve's Economic Recovery for 2011 and beyond. I'm doing and have done my part to give this country what it needs. My recovery involves dumping the loser investments so that I can make it some other way. My .02, of course. |
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Steve
2011 Sport/Air 200 Excalibur 343 2017 Boatmate Tandem Axle Trailer Former CC owner (77, 80, 95, 88, all SNs) Former Malibu owner (07, 09) |
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Swatkinz
Platinum Member Joined: December-03-2003 Location: Lexington, SC Status: Offline Points: 1307 |
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Riley, I don't want to date your age by saying this, but I think i'm a little younger than you. Nonetheless as much as it hurts, the economic lessons i've learned over the last few years have been very valuable to me. It has forced me to look at things in a different light and i'm determined to make that a positive. On a different note, isn't it funny to think that I could've not bought this one investment and purchased a brand new CC, ahem Nautiques By Correct Craft, and it would've been a better investment? Not just a better family time investment, but an actual better investment |
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Steve
2011 Sport/Air 200 Excalibur 343 2017 Boatmate Tandem Axle Trailer Former CC owner (77, 80, 95, 88, all SNs) Former Malibu owner (07, 09) |
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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Andy, I hate when someone uses the term "lost"....it was stolen.
trends show when gas hikes the economy tanks, 4.50 by summer?, im pushing 50 and i really dont foresee any good returns on investments, its to risky, I switched my mindset to day by day, the 40% stolen is a good indicator that no money is safe and if it happened once it surely could happen again, and what can you do about it? not a damn thing, sit back and say oh fcn well. really, who out there, ie China, Japan, wants to invest in our countries future when its this shakey? would you invest into a failing economy.....probably not. Our government is talking about defaulting on loans WTF!!!!!!!what signal does that send? oh well just dont pay them...very sad |
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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63 Skier
Grand Poobah Joined: October-06-2006 Location: Concord, NH Status: Offline Points: 4269 |
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The U.S. won't default on any loans .... yet.
China and Japan and Germany and the rest of the world invest heavily in the U.S. on a daily basis, and will continue to do so until things are much, much worse than they are now. As bad as our economic future seems, and as I said above I think it's potentially very bad, it's still the best long term bet of the world's huge economies. |
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'63 American Skier - '98 Sport Nautique
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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The change will not be overnight, confidence will erode slowly and as people jump ship things will pick up speed till we are all sitting around saying what happened?
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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the only way we wont default is by printing more money, thus once again killing the value of the dollar, currency is a means of trade without it you would be trading sheeps for cows in todays terms,
we are the only country that can print money without gold backing it, we can print at will, but it does create a vacuum, (deficit) If we each paid 100% tax on our income in 2010, it still wouldnt cover the deficit. look at it this way, the drug dealer down on the corner, he is using more drugs than he is selling, so now he has to inflate the cost of his drugs to cover his useage, being his supplier you will sit back and really probably cut him off, not re-investing to him because you know you wont have a high return, really though the cost to manufacture the drug is minimal(printing money)...so you, being the supplier will seek out another dealer that will move that same amont for a higher return. in hindsight you really dont give a sht about the first dealer because you are a buyer and a seller. in a way this country is kinda like the first drug dealer, and many wouldnt waste their time investing into him because they are taking that risk. |
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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Waterdog
Grand Poobah Joined: April-27-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2020 |
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Listening to you guys I've come to the conclusion that I need a lot more bullets.
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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now you know why ammo tripled in price and they want 6 month primers....they dont want your crazy asses stockpiling ammo....starts to make sense doesnt it?
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Cheaper solution!
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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eric lavine
Grand Poobah Joined: August-13-2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13413 |
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John the Boner is starting to back track....in between crying sessions, my analogy of him, cheap ass kraut who paid his home off early, has his first nickel and will profit from his position, maybe sway things to profit....but, if you are a pubby, nothing new lol
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"the things you own will start to own you"
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Cheap Kraut in charge of MY money sounds a lot better than Queen Polosie, If he is out for his own profit why did he give back the jet and ask for a pay cut?
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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