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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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OK Dave, you've got me...
Yes, fossil fuels are booming especially here in North Dakota, now #2 oil producing state in the US (after Texas) due to the oil boom in the Bakken Shale. I experience this first hand daily with the large number of what can only be oil trains rolling through town just a block from my apartment. BUT, that doesn't mean that clean/renewable energy isn't doing well either. Cost per unit electricity from solar and wind have plummeted, especially in the last 5-10 years, in no small part due to govt. investment (I just read some great stuff on this and looked for it but couldn't find it so you'll just have to trust me on this). I don't think there is a "one or the other" option here, and in fact with much if anything that we are often "arguing" about. Energy demands are going to continue to go through the roof for the foreseeable future. Green energy is doing well (as John has already noted). The failures are the exception not the rule and, as in any good capitalist system, as necessary part of the process. To John's comment that we are running out of oil, from what I can tell that is not the case (well for the foreseeable future, sooner or later we must by definition run out). Proven reserves continue to grow, new finds are being made all the time, and the technology to extract the resources continues to be developed. In fact, I'm pretty sure that there are already today on the books proven fossil fuel reserves that are approximately equal to all the fossil fuel that we have burned so far. This is where the opposition to Keystone XL comes from, at least for me. Dave(s), I'm pretty sure you are a climate change skeptic(s) but I am obviously not and I am sure that if you knew what I do you wouldn't be either, bug I digress... I'm all for jobs (hell, I need one!) but the question is if building the pipeline is a net benefit. Actually, I have a somewhat perverse view of things that sometimes says, "Screw it just build the thing so at least we get the benefits cause you know if we don't somebody else will and the benefits will just go to them." This occurs at my low and cynical times... I'm not much for economics/finance but index funds are clearly the way to go. I'm totally with you boys on that. Healthcare is a very tricky thing, and quite honestly I don't even know what to think of it half the time. My go to position is that I think it is good (this seems to be the consensus from my friends who work in the field) but that it isn't for free (hence the instability, increased costs, changes, etc.).
I read a great piece on this about a year ago. It doesn't come as a surprise to learn that this wasn't the case as recently as 10 or so years ago. It also will not come as a surprise to learn that about the only reasonable explanation for it (from what I have read) is the influx of lobbying dollars. And these dollars go to both the left and the right. Indeed, fortunes as spent primarily to keep things as the status quo, and of course that way everybody in DC benefits while the rest of us... well you know what happens. |
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john b
Grand Poobah Joined: July-06-2011 Location: lake Sweeny Status: Offline Points: 3241 |
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Good to hear from a rational head, Jamin.
Lets have a couple drinks together next time before "last call". |
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1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox"
If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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Thanks John. Like my XL feelings I perversely like to see this thread pop up just for the banter between the four of us.
I should be in the Chicago area a few times once it (please!) warms up again in the spring/summer. Maybe if I get lucky it'll be "Chicago Beers" time, but if not a drop in to see you and the Mustang will be in order. J$ |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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John it seems like you are playing both sides of the fence. You are banking on alternative energy being our future while saying we need to save our reserves...for the future. I think the fuel cell and hydrogen are the next big thing that will really work and be readily adopted. Just think, we could help lower the oceans taking out water to convert to fuel, and then seed the clouds for rain with every mile we drive. my fear is as we reduce carbon dioxide and the planet cools as the theory would suggest, all that water coming from the tail pipes will make some nasty black ice. Of course we will have all the salt from the ocean water we are converting to fuel to put on the roads so it all works together. The technology needs some more time to work out an efficient way to convert water to hydrogen, and make the fuel cell small and affordable. If not the fuel cell there will certainly be something else. This is why I am not worried about oil reserves being needed 100 years from now, and we have the reserves to last at least till then. In the mean time we should be embracing our cheapest fuel options to be competitive as a country instead of looking for ways to handicap our economy when our global competition is taking full advantage of cheap energy. Your gains in green energy are not from the success of the technology but from the subsides. The technology would fall flat under if it had to compete on its own merit. You are smart to take advantage of the subsidized gains, but I should not have to pay higher fuel costs and taxes to subsidize currently non-financially viable energy so your portfolio can grow. When we talk income equality we are subsidizing the accounts of those with enough wealth to invest in green energy by charging everyone including the poor with higher energy costs. |
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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davidg
Grand Poobah Joined: January-07-2008 Location: NW Chicagoland Status: Offline Points: 2239 |
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Gotta agree with you John. Jamin is sounding very rational...almost...gasp....conservative!! There are streaks showing through anyway whether he knows it or now. I am encouraged! . |
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JoeinNY
Grand Poobah Joined: October-19-2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 5698 |
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And since I am feeding the trolls today – are you guys kidding me, arguing that green technologies are somehow flawed because they have need subsidies to be competitive against fossil fuels… whoa there that attempt at an argument is funnier that the beavis and butthead style Obummer ski team joke.
Fossil fuel companies sell something they didn’t make, that they removed from someplace they usually don’t own, and sell it using heavily subsidized infrastructure, and are not only completely free of charges for the very real negative externalities they cause (assuming they don’t actually pour the stuff directly into someones drinking water during daylight hours) but are also heavily directly subsidized by the US government. 10 Billion a year is minimum estimate of those current subsidies (50 billion is closer to the real value) –.. why don’t we count the value of the last hundred years of those subsidies – add them all up and then tell me why anyone would think that the fossil fuel companies wouldn’t have the ability to crush any new technology without regard to the merits of that technology. Used to be the conservative view (before fox) was to place a cost on the negative externalities associated with fossil fuel use, and allow those costs/credits to be traded between companies to let the market penalize the polluters while the market subsidized the innovators to help aid the inevitable transition away from what is an undeniably finite amount of fossil fuel. Liberals said screw it lets subsidize the innovators and regulate the polluters that way we don’t destroy the only planet we got while the market figures it out… Today in Washington business rules and we just subsidize them all and don’t regulate any of them. The cronies get richer as long as everyone all plays ball… and don’t worry guys we can all move to Canada after we wreck this joint cause we will all be rich anyway and I hear those Canadian girls are easy anyway... Liberals say wait a minute shouldn’t we at least do that old conservative market driven thing… “Conservatives” say shut up you commies or we will take your sissy pants green energy subsidies and use them to pump this Canadian tar directly into your drinking water and if you do anything about it I’ll tell everyone how you took r jobs. |
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JPASS
Grand Poobah Joined: June-17-2013 Location: Orlando Status: Offline Points: 2283 |
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I'm a huge skeptic of climate change due to man. I'd love to hear your views on why you think it is real. |
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'92 Correctcraft Ski Nautique
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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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May I ask what the basis of your skepticism is? Is it with the fact that the Earth is warming? That CO2 and other greenhouse gases cannot warm the atmosphere? Is it because you think it is part of an agenda? Something else or all of the above? I'm not saying don't be skeptical, but if you can give me some feedback I can perhaps tailor my response to your particular concerns. Cheers, Jamin |
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JPASS
Grand Poobah Joined: June-17-2013 Location: Orlando Status: Offline Points: 2283 |
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I'm just curious about your statement "If you knew what I knew, you wouldn't be (a skeptic) either."
So I guess I'd like to know what you know that would make a skeptic, like myself, a believer. I do believe there are people out there with an agenda. Al Gore is one of them. I do not believe the earth is warming as temps have basically remained stable for the past 15+ years. As a person who has been working in the environmental sciences field for the past 13+ years, I guess I'm just curious as to why you believe it is real. |
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'92 Correctcraft Ski Nautique
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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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Ok, well I admit that statement was a bit strong. You should always be a skeptic. That said, I've tried to be as skeptical as possible given my position and have examined the evidence as best I can. I also try to keep up with the primary research literature as well as what gets covered in the media for both "sides" of the issue. I can't get something back to you as soon as I'd like, but I'll try to get something as soon as I can. Just curious, what kind of environmental science do you do? Cheers! |
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JPASS
Grand Poobah Joined: June-17-2013 Location: Orlando Status: Offline Points: 2283 |
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Hansel,
Edit: I just read the Earth Day thread. I know your thoughts on the subject. Let's agree to disagree. |
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'92 Correctcraft Ski Nautique
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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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JP,
That post was aimed at Dave, who I know a little bit personally. I know I probably come off as a blow-hard (and I probably am to some extent) but I hope you'll still allow me a brief sketch of why I have essentially zero doubt that climate change is anything but real. I just took a look back at some of the stuff in the "Earth Day" thread. I had kinda forgot I wrote those things! I was a bit rough on Dave back then too (and then we hadn't even met. Wow I am a jerk...). But yeah, if you read those you've pretty much got my take. Still, I think if you read what I have read and talked to the people I've talked with you'd be agreeing to agree. Sooner or later the climate will make it so obvious that all but the most stubborn among us will be able to deny the planet is much much warmer and it is definitely our fault. I'd have thought we were there already. Guess not. Cheers! |
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JPASS
Grand Poobah Joined: June-17-2013 Location: Orlando Status: Offline Points: 2283 |
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Hansel,
Here's my take on it. I work in a lab where we utilize our data to protect our land owner from lawsuits and to continually monitor all aspects of waters and soils on said property. We've been doing this for almost 40 years for about 32 square miles of property and have the database to back up our findings. I have seen with my own two eyes how a data set can be made, through selective data interpretation/manipulation, to validate a particular point of view regardless of what the numbers show. This is highly unethical in our field, but it happens all the time. Without seeing the data sets of all the research that supports the global warming theories myself, I cannot simply believe they are true. I also see the agenda behind pushing this theory to make money off the people. When politicians start pushing this theory, all bets are off and my guard is up. What pisses me off the most is that there is data on both sides of the argument that support each side, yet those that believe that global warming is real will state that the data refuting that theory is junk or paid for by "big oil', yet their data is right as rain. This is blatantly obvious based on the remarks from the Earth Day thread. Any research that comes to a definite conclusion should be reproducible, yet many of the models predicting global warming have been debunked or are not reproducible. As a scientist, this type of outcome is inconclusive at best and therefore should not be used to present a theory as fact. It remains just a theory. I see no problem in trying to be environmentally conscious and to do our best to be as clean as possible, but I don't like being forced to do something for a reason that has yet to be proven. I've read the articles in the Earth Day thread and still am not convinced that man made global warming exists. Feel free to post any information you think may open my eyes to global warming, but I don't think you'll be able to prove to me, without a shadow of a doubt, that man made global warming is occurring or exists. We also may want to move this to the Earth Day thread if you wish to continue this discussion so as not to hijack this thread anymore than we already have. |
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'92 Correctcraft Ski Nautique
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Riley
Grand Poobah Joined: January-19-2004 Location: Portland, ME Status: Offline Points: 7954 |
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Great post, that's it in a nutshell. JPass, you got to be in the minority of scientists for letting the data/analysis lead you to conclusions. |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Jamin, While you are answering questions, I started the earth day thread with the question of why have we had no warming over the last 15 years when man made carbon dioxide production went up 30% in the same period. I definitely see some correlation of between earth temps and carbon dioxide (but not nearly the correlation seen with sun activity)but I am not sure of which drives which. If carbon dioxide were to rise with the earths temp, and not the other way around that would explain the lack of correlation in the question above. Perhaps co2 is even a temperature buffer in a way we have yet to figure out and the earth uses it to protect itself ( I have no evidence of this, and have not seen it proposed, its just a thought, but to paraphrase Joe, I aint to bright about science think'n). So the question is what evidence tells you which is the driver, temp or co2?
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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JP,
Yeah, we should probably move the conversation over the that thread, so I'll jump over there after this. Thanks for having this conversation. I can't really respond at the moment but I can toss a few quick things out there. I too am a scientist. I am out of graduate school now and I work with insects; formerly in a more of a "basic" science sense and today from more of an agricultural/applied angle. Sure, data can be massages or outright faked by conscious or subconscious design. In my experience this is direct manipulation is very very rare, though more subtle alterations are more pervasive. Still, it seems to me that the signal generally rises above the noise; that is the results have explanatory power. I'm not sure why you think climate data/models are poor, or how you even think that they could be altered by so many people over so much time and space. I don't know exactly what you do, but I do know that large scale academic research science is an intensely adversarial system that does a pretty good job of weeding out ideas that are unsubstantiated. Is there still group think and junk science? Well, sure, we're dealing with people. But to say that you don't trust the data of thousands of scientists from dozens of fields over many decades because you haven't seen it yourself is a bar so high that it is impossible to clear. It makes me wonder how you trust anything at all. This conversation is not about eliminating all doubt. What I am suggesting is that when you honestly examine the evidence with as little bias and suspicion as you can muster it takes a much larger leap of faith to believe it isn't real than that it is. To me it really is that simple. I don't know of many climate data sets that have been shown to have serious flaws, I don't know exactly what you mean by "models that have been debunked or are not reproducible" but that doesn't strike me as an accurate statement about the state of the science. I don't know who you think is pushing global warming and what their agenda is, but nobody that I know who works on climate change personally is motivated by their politics to do so. Everything seems to come down to your statement that, "I cannot simply believe they are true." You obviously believe something is true. I guess I am asking is if all evidence is suspect, why do you have faith in the side of the argument that has the least evidence? Anyway, have a great day and hopefully I'll see you on the other thread. Dave, quickly, there is a physical/chemical mechanistic link between CO2 and temperature/radiative forcing. So yes, correlation is not causation but it is by far the most likely explanation when you account for everything else you can toss out there (sun, natural cycles, etc.). It is not an arbitrary relationship, but a carefully studied one. It makes good sense. Cheers! Jamin |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Obama was in the Twin cities again today promoting some taxing and spending. Man its hard to get any floors installed with one hand busy protecting my wallet
Aaaahhhh I never get tired of that one! |
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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BuffaloBFN
Grand Poobah Joined: June-24-2007 Location: Gainesville,GA Status: Offline Points: 6094 |
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Wow...78 Pages!
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davidg
Grand Poobah Joined: January-07-2008 Location: NW Chicagoland Status: Offline Points: 2239 |
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Don't forget Dave's "Earth Day" thread as well. That is 14 pages now.
I can't wait to see what his next masterpiece will be. |
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62 wood
Grand Poobah Joined: February-19-2005 Location: NW IL Status: Offline Points: 4527 |
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Gas is up 20 cents in past week and a half, now at $3.59/gallon.
Time to dig out the Obama "slamming $2.00 gas" video again. |
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davidg
Grand Poobah Joined: January-07-2008 Location: NW Chicagoland Status: Offline Points: 2239 |
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How about pulling out the video of Jimmy Obama telling Romney during a debate from teh 2012 election that "the 80's called, and they want their foriegn policy back" when Romney said that Putin was a geopolitical threat.
Jimmy Obama was suggesting that Romney was still living in the Cold War era. Maybe we should ask the people in the Ukraine if the Cold War is over. Romney turned out to be spot on, and Barack Carter looks like a piker when going up against Vlad! Or, how about the IRS going after Tea Party groups? Or, how about the FCC sending "researchers" into newsrooms to find out how and why certain news items are picked? Another good topic would be how well Obamacare is going. |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Poor Obama just gets no R-S-P-E-C-T.
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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The econony shrunk 1% first quarter. More proof that Keynesian economics does not buy growth, it just rents it. Oh well at least the debt will last long enough to give Obama a legacy.
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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john b
Grand Poobah Joined: July-06-2011 Location: lake Sweeny Status: Offline Points: 3241 |
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Just pretend it's global warming, deny it's happening, and enjoy your life. Why drag out these retread threads, especially during water sports season?
I once met a man who denied The things bout which science had lied Research is a waste So he'd cut and he'd paste And spread the Faux news nationwide. Dave, YOU NEED TO GET OUT ON YOUR CC AND ENJOY YOURSELF.! |
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1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox"
If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
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OverMyHead
Grand Poobah Joined: March-14-2008 Location: MN Status: Offline Points: 4861 |
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Silly me for thinking people having jobs trumps a boat ride. I will try to think more like a retired guy on a government pension
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For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats.
1987 Ski Nautique |
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john b
Grand Poobah Joined: July-06-2011 Location: lake Sweeny Status: Offline Points: 3241 |
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Yea, I got my golden parachute. Livin life large on that! Probably the kinesiology you talk about.
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1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox"
If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
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JoeinNY
Grand Poobah Joined: October-19-2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 5698 |
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It proves that how? What Keynesian remedy was applied that somehow didnt work? Do you have any idea what you are talking about? |
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Hansel
Senior Member Joined: September-21-2006 Location: Twin Cities, MN Status: Offline Points: 415 |
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From your friends at Fox Business. Basically all other news outlets are saying the same thing, but I thought I'd give it to you straight from your favorite feeding trough.
All those Keynesians and their darned Polar Vortex! |
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john b
Grand Poobah Joined: July-06-2011 Location: lake Sweeny Status: Offline Points: 3241 |
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If this is disappointing financial news, I'll take it! Markets close at new record highs Must be the Kinesthetics! |
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1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox"
If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
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81nautique
Grand Poobah Joined: September-03-2005 Location: Big Rock, Il Status: Offline Points: 5787 |
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I really hate to say anything on this thread although I do enjoy reading it but as far as business is concerned i do have a little input from a guy who owns a small business and lives in the trenches every day.
So, I always judge the economy by looking at what my customers are doing. I belong to many trade organizations in the building trades and attend several membership meetings/trade events monthly, everyone is busting at the seams with work. Housing starts are up so my clients from excavators, framers, roofers, electricians , plumbers, Hvac,etc,etc are all working. Landscaping is doing great because of the wet spring and they have money in their pockets because they plowed more snow this year than they have in the last 5. Park Districts and municipalities although still watching pennies are now expanding some of the programs that got chopped to pieces a few years ago, largely due to increased revenue from sales tax, ie, people are spending money and the tax revenue is finally coming back. I am now collecting and filing sales tax numbers like I was back in 2008. I also do a lot of work for large marketing companies, people are finally advertising again and the work is coming in here by the skid load. I run several employee recognition programs for businesses and employees are getting rewarded with swag and trinkets, the same swag and trinkets that no one purchased for the last 5 years because they didn't have the money. Businesses actually have budgets for this stuff again, maybe not as large but it's there. My own employees are working 40 plus hours a week since February, before that they had not gotten more than 35 hours a week since 2008. This January we hired a consulting firm to come in and help us with our efficiency and marketing programs. Every single employee here now has an incentive plan and is making more money than they ever have. Our April sales numbers were the highest they've been since July of 2008 and year to date sales are up 37% over 2013. I watch the stock market and read and listen to far too much news and I've learned that someone will always find the down side if that's what they're looking for so I tune out the rhetoric and focus on what we know how to do. We watch every dime and run a tight ship just like all my clients that weathered the storm and are now reaping the benefits of insight and perseverance. One of the downsides I do still see is that lending is very difficult, banks are still very demanding on lines of credit, commercial lending and commercial mortgages. I just had to refinance the building the business is in and I have never had to jump through so many hoops. I've spent 20 years now in business and I've seen the cycle so many times and it is time to make money right now. |
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You can’t change the wind but you can adjust your sails
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