Economic signs
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URL: http://www.CorrectCraftFan.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=25017
Printed Date: December-22-2024 at 4:40pm
Topic: Economic signs
Posted By: OverMyHead
Subject: Economic signs
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 1:50pm
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We have a builder we work for that has kept us going through the down economy. They build homes from 1 to 12 milliom in value. lead time is typically 1+ years. 6 months ago they had 14 projects booked. I learned this week 12 have been cancelled or put on hold to see what happens with the economy. They laid off two of three project managers. When the rich stop spending we are all in trouble. ------------- For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats. 1987 Ski Nautique |
Replies:
Posted By: eric lavine
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 4:51pm
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your views are warped, i think you mean the middleclass? your high end home market is very small compared to suburban USA, you get your average builder thats use to building 100 homes a year instead of the onsie twosies, are the ones turned the wheel.
here is a question in one years time, if you do 3 floors in a million dollar house or 60 floors in 200k houses, you'll be working everyday, with the 60 floors, putting gas in your truck, going to the Home depot for supply's etc etc...... ------------- "the things you own will start to own you" |
Posted By: davidg
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 5:06pm
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It's an all of the above equation. Dave, I am sure your builder will be right back on his feet when the government entitlement recipients get their g-checks and start buying high end homes.
I heard Mitch Daniels (Gov. of Indiana) on Fox News Sunday today. He was talking about the fact that you can't really measure the "unemployment" rate these days as measure of how things are going. His point is you have to look at the "employment" rate. Its at the lowest level in quite a few years due to due to jobs leaving the U.S., and a large number of people who are no longer even counted as part of the labor force. I have seen some reports that indicate the true unemployment rate could be as high as 19% when you factor in people that have part time jobs that would like full time jobs. Its widely acknowledged that the administration is playing games with the unemployment numbers to make things look rosier than they are. |
Posted By: OverMyHead
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 5:30pm
Eric, my views are just mine that I wanted to share but they are the reality of my local situation. If reality is warped what are you viewing that is not warped? five years ago my company had 40% more employees and serviced all segments of the housing industry, from new construction and remodeling of homes valued from $100,000 to twelve million. After the housing bubble burst there were brand new homes sitting on the market that still are being liquidated. why have a house built if there are plenty of brand new ones just waiting for you and on sale? I would love to be putting floors in 100 brand new starter homes this year, but they are just not out there to pursue. The mid range housing followed the same trend, there are some being built but not a ton. You are correct that the high end market is smaller, but we had a solid foot in the door in that market, and were getting a good percentage of them from about three different builders, the one I mentioned was the busiest. They were our bread and butter, with a few remodels hear and there to give us some meat and potatoes. Nothing is changing in the other segments. We cannot trade off the mansions for a bunch of smaller homes that are not out there. In the building boom everything together had me firmly in the middle of the middle class. Lately the mansions had me holding onto lower middle class. If the mansions go away I am looking at the prospect of scrapping by as a handyman or an Obama kid. I look for new employment each week in another industry, but there are few bites and I have yet to land anything. My point was the lower and middle class have not been spending in my industry, now it seems to be hitting hard in the upper class at least in my area. You may not believe trickle down economics works to your satisfaction, but I see its direct effects everyday, or at least I had been. If the rich stop spending it effects us all. I just wanted to give you all a heads up. ------------- For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats. 1987 Ski Nautique |
eric lavine wrote:Posted By: SNobsessed
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 7:48pm
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Dave - Thanks, It sounds like the Dow may not stay at 13K very long!
I may have to re-think my Roth IRA plan. ------------- “Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.” Ben Franklin |
Posted By: eric lavine
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 9:13pm
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Oh, believe me, when oct 08 hit i was scratching my nuts saying WTF, i swear the phone didnt ring for 2 weeks straight, i lost material things, not my sanity, went from 600k gross down to half and leveled from there on out, my overhead was the same...but, it made me smarter stronger and wiser, i would take anything through that door to make a buck..I look back, still got the family, still eat good, still get laid once in a while...fck, im happy ------------- "the things you own will start to own you" |
Posted By: MIskier
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 10:39pm
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I just got back from the Miami boat show last week and would have said the exact opposite. The company I work for sold 1 boat at the show (the only one in the sale that was for sale) and 3 build slots which was about 3.5 million in sales. Cigarette sold every boat that they had on display, and I know several other companies that sold numerous boats.
The people that were buying were cash buyers though, and I think that is the biggest factor for the rich. If they cant pay cash they are waiting and not spending. It used to be that the company I work for sold models that ranged from 150k-over a million, now people arent buying anything under about 300k. All of the boats we sold at the show were 800k plus boats and the buyers were not looking for any financing. ------------- 2006 MasterCraft PS 190 1986 CC Ski Nautique 2001 |
Posted By: Waterdog
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 10:57pm
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Since Fountain Power Boats went under the factory was sold.
Now ALL the molds and tooling are sitting outside next to one of the buildings. Sure is sad to see all that equipment out in the elements. Must be 100s of thousands of dollars (or more) . ------------- - waterdog - http://www.correctcraftfan.com/diaries/details.asp?ID=3896&sort=&pagenum=2&yrstart=1978&yrend=1978" rel="nofollow - 78 Ski Tique |
Posted By: OverMyHead
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 11:03pm
Don't bet your IRA on my experience, I am just a small piece of the picture. Maybe I should move to Miami. ------------- For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats. 1987 Ski Nautique |
Posted By: SNobsessed
Date Posted: February-26-2012 at 11:35pm
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Dave - No, I had an eerie feeling about this year even before, I swear the big playas pump up the stock market to suck us little fish in! ------------- “Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.” Ben Franklin |
Posted By: eric lavine
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 11:12am
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it always goes back to the wise cow, walk down and fck them all son
ML, paying cash for something is the way to go, but, when you have cash, you have buying power, which means a heavy price reduction and less taxes.... me or you, lets say we want a 50k boat, I certainly cannot pay cash for a boat, so i go to the bank like everyone else, finance it, full coverage insurance so on so on, the bank will roughly end up with 20k to invest, they take the risk, so, paying cash for a boat is a temporary solution to get a company out of a jamb like Wellcraft ------------- "the things you own will start to own you" |
Posted By: JoeinNY
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 11:41am
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No offense to Dave's localized market data... I am sure it does hurt
but every economic indicator that we look at to set our production goals shows exactly the opposite. Supplier leadtimes are going up because thier orders have increased and we are no longer have the run of thier machines. Half of our CAD designers have left or put in notice in the last 6 months (painfully 2 really good ones in the last month, so anyone with rotating machine design experience in Unigraphics looking to move to Syracuse give me a call) - we are bracing ourselves to continue to lose anyone who currently has a long commute as opportunities to work closer to home are coming up. My informal boat show tracking shows that there was increased activity and sales at both the Syracuse and Charlotte shows this year as compared to last. What really happens of course remains to be seen - despite recent increases in housing indicators we will be recovering from the housing overproduction and crash for some time. ------------- http://www.correctcraftfan.com/diaries/details.asp?ID=1477 - 1983 Ski Nautique 2001 1967 Mustang 302 "Decoy" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO5MkcBXBBs - Holeshot Video |
Posted By: OverMyHead
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 11:46am
Maybe that should have been when the rich in my neighborhood stop spending I am in trouble. I am glad to here there are positive signs out there. ------------- For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats. 1987 Ski Nautique |
Posted By: eric lavine
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 12:14pm
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its a sign Dave, that the rich do have and hold the money. i dont know if you can fathom how big the middleclass is compared to the rich, the rich really is a small group but with alot of buying power, how many rich people do you know? its a very delicate balance, the middle gets squeezed during a recession, the poor does not notice it and the rich does not notice it, its the guy in the middle, if gas shot up to 10 bucks a gallon would the rich park their Limo's, probably not, the poor rely on public transportation.
thats why the rich can go plop down 10 million cash on a boat, we bitch about the gas going up a quater and we feel it, it hits our bottom line. the middleclass needs the tax breaks, our income certainly has not followed suit. we the middle need a break ------------- "the things you own will start to own you" |
Posted By: john b
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 1:17pm
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This is a good weathervane. These are the citizens who fuel the economy. It is sooooo good to se the economy coming back strong!
http://uscc.apnews.com/ap/db_45577/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=mfoLuHVR&src=cat&dbid=45577&dbname=Top+News&detailindex=9 ------------- 1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox" If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
Posted By: john b
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 1:18pm
------------- 1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox" If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
Posted By: skicat2001
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 1:37pm
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[QUOTE=john b] yIt is sooooo good to se the economy coming back strong!
WTF!!!! Economy coming back.. What planet are you living on...  ------------- 1985 CC 2001-SOLD Lee Michael Johnson |
Posted By: eric lavine
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 1:51pm
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rightyganda lol, my new word for the week ------------- "the things you own will start to own you" |
Posted By: john b
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 2:11pm
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Booming back like gangbusters!
I am still on planet earth, however I am looking forward to being one of the moon colonizers proposed by one of the Grumpy Old People party candidates. I wonder if I can get my $9.99 pizza delivered to the moon. Isn't that the plan? ------------- 1970 Mustang "Theseus' paradox" If everyone else is doing it, you're too late! |
Posted By: MIskier
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 10:08pm
Reggie Fountain spent a good amount of time in our booth talking to my boss and I about his future plans. It seemed like being pushed out at Fountain really hurt him personally, but he is ready to be back building boats. All of the tooling that they had was worth millions as far as what it would cost to retool all those parts. ------------- 2006 MasterCraft PS 190 1986 CC Ski Nautique 2001 |
Posted By: MIskier
Date Posted: February-27-2012 at 10:10pm
------------- 2006 MasterCraft PS 190 1986 CC Ski Nautique 2001 |
Posted By: OverMyHead
Date Posted: February-28-2012 at 2:21am
Counters Democrap!LOL ------------- For thousands of years men have felt the irresistible urge to go to sea, and many of them died. Things got better after they invented boats. 1987 Ski Nautique |
Posted By: eric lavine
Date Posted: February-28-2012 at 11:20am
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ML, does the word cash flow help? ------------- "the things you own will start to own you" |
Posted By: MIskier
Date Posted: February-28-2012 at 1:05pm
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Cash flow for the company and a cash buyer at a dealer are two very different things. ------------- 2006 MasterCraft PS 190 1986 CC Ski Nautique 2001 |