You didn build that !

Obama was in the Twin cities again today promoting some taxing and spending. Man its hard to get any floors installed with one hand busy protecting my wallet



Aaaahhhh I never get tired of that one!

Jamin, While you are answering questions, I started the earth day thread with the question of why have we had no warming over the last 15 years when man made carbon dioxide production went up 30% in the same period. I definitely see some correlation of between earth temps and carbon dioxide (but not nearly the correlation seen with sun activity)but I am not sure of which drives which. If carbon dioxide were to rise with the earths temp, and not the other way around that would explain the lack of correlation in the question above. Perhaps co2 is even a temperature buffer in a way we have yet to figure out and the earth uses it to protect itself ( I have no evidence of this, and have not seen it proposed, its just a thought, but to paraphrase Joe, I aint to bright about science think'n). So the question is what evidence tells you which is the driver, temp or co2?

Hansel,

Here's my take on it. I work in a lab where we utilize our data to protect our land owner from lawsuits and to continually monitor all aspects of waters and soils on said property. We've been doing this for almost 40 years for about 32 square miles of property and have the database to back up our findings.

I have seen with my own two eyes how a data set can be made, through selective data interpretation/manipulation, to validate a particular point of view regardless of what the numbers show. This is highly unethical in our field, but it happens all the time.

Without seeing the data sets of all the research that supports the global warming theories myself, I cannot simply believe they are true. I also see the agenda behind pushing this theory to make money off the people. When politicians start pushing this theory, all bets are off and my guard is up.

What pisses me off the most is that there is data on both sides of the argument that support each side, yet those that believe that global warming is real will state that the data refuting that theory is junk or paid for by "big oil', yet their data is right as rain. This is blatantly obvious based on the remarks from the Earth Day thread.

Any research that comes to a definite conclusion should be reproducible, yet many of the models predicting global warming have been debunked or are not reproducible. As a scientist, this type of outcome is inconclusive at best and therefore should not be used to present a theory as fact. It remains just a theory.

I see no problem in trying to be environmentally conscious and to do our best to be as clean as possible, but I don't like being forced to do something for a reason that has yet to be proven.

I've read the articles in the Earth Day thread and still am not convinced that man made global warming exists.

Feel free to post any information you think may open my eyes to global warming, but I don't think you'll be able to prove to me, without a shadow of a doubt, that man made global warming is occurring or exists.

We also may want to move this to the Earth Day thread if you wish to continue this discussion so as not to hijack this thread anymore than we already have.

Hansel,

Edit: I just read the Earth Day thread. I know your thoughts on the subject. Let's agree to disagree.

I'm just curious about your statement "If you knew what I knew, you wouldn't be (a skeptic) either."

So I guess I'd like to know what you know that would make a skeptic, like myself, a believer.

I do believe there are people out there with an agenda. Al Gore is one of them.

I do not believe the earth is warming as temps have basically remained stable for the past 15+ years.

As a person who has been working in the environmental sciences field for the past 13+ years, I guess I'm just curious as to why you believe it is real.

Hansel wrote: OI'm pretty sure you are a climate change skeptic(s) but I am obviously not and I am sure that if you knew what I do you wouldn't be either,

I'm a huge skeptic of climate change due to man. I'd love to hear your views on why you think it is real.

john b wrote: Good to hear from a rational head, Jamin. Lets have a couple drinks together next time before "last call".

Gotta agree with you John. Jamin is sounding very rational...almost...gasp....conservative!! There are streaks showing through anyway whether he knows it or now. I am encouraged! .

Thanks John. Like my XL feelings I perversely like to see this thread pop up just for the banter between the four of us.

I should be in the Chicago area a few times once it (please!) warms up again in the spring/summer. Maybe if I get lucky it'll be "Chicago Beers" time, but if not a drop in to see you and the Mustang will be in order.

J$

OK Dave, you've got me...

Yes, fossil fuels are booming especially here in North Dakota, now #2 oil producing state in the US (after Texas) due to the oil boom in the Bakken Shale. I experience this first hand daily with the large number of what can only be oil trains rolling through town just a block from my apartment. BUT, that doesn't mean that clean/renewable energy isn't doing well either. Cost per unit electricity from solar and wind have plummeted, especially in the last 5-10 years, in no small part due to govt. investment (I just read some great stuff on this and looked for it but couldn't find it so you'll just have to trust me on this). I don't think there is a "one or the other" option here, and in fact with much if anything that we are often "arguing" about. Energy demands are going to continue to go through the roof for the foreseeable future. Green energy is doing well (as John has already noted). The failures are the exception not the rule and, as in any good capitalist system, as necessary part of the process.

To John's comment that we are running out of oil, from what I can tell that is not the case (well for the foreseeable future, sooner or later we must by definition run out). Proven reserves continue to grow, new finds are being made all the time, and the technology to extract the resources continues to be developed. In fact, I'm pretty sure that there are already today on the books proven fossil fuel reserves that are approximately equal to all the fossil fuel that we have burned so far. This is where the opposition to Keystone XL comes from, at least for me. Dave(s), I'm pretty sure you are a climate change skeptic(s) but I am obviously not and I am sure that if you knew what I do you wouldn't be either, bug I digress... I'm all for jobs (hell, I need one!) but the question is if building the pipeline is a net benefit. Actually, I have a somewhat perverse view of things that sometimes says, "Screw it just build the thing so at least we get the benefits cause you know if we don't somebody else will and the benefits will just go to them." This occurs at my low and cynical times...

I'm not much for economics/finance but index funds are clearly the way to go. I'm totally with you boys on that.

Healthcare is a very tricky thing, and quite honestly I don't even know what to think of it half the time. My go to position is that I think it is good (this seems to be the consensus from my friends who work in the field) but that it isn't for free (hence the instability, increased costs, changes, etc.).

davidg wrote: DC is the richest zip code in the US, and they don't make, or produce anything there. They just take our money and live high on the hog, and redistribute it.

I read a great piece on this about a year ago. It doesn't come as a surprise to learn that this wasn't the case as recently as 10 or so years ago. It also will not come as a surprise to learn that about the only reasonable explanation for it (from what I have read) is the influx of lobbying dollars. And these dollars go to both the left and the right. Indeed, fortunes as spent primarily to keep things as the status quo, and of course that way everybody in DC benefits while the rest of us... well you know what happens.

The Govt, no doubt, has done a lot of good over the years. My concern is that now it is way over-stepping its bounds, and has become much heavier-handed than in the past. It is growing like crazy. DC is the richest zip code in the US, and they don't make, or produce anything there. They just take our money and live high on the hog, and redistribute it. They are putting too many people in the cart, and fewer and fewer people are pulling the cart. O-Care isn't about getting people healthcare. Its about putting people under its control. More people have lost insurance than gained it with this magnificent scheme.

Energy....we have one of the richest reserves of it right here in the US. But, we don't have the brains to tap into like we should, and really take advantage of the resources we have. Why won't Obama approve the Keystone pipeline? That could produce tens of thousands of jobs and create new businesses. He seems much more interested in adding people to the unemployment lines, the food stamp lines, and the disability lines. We should be putting people to work, and not on the govt dole. I think we have a lot more energy right under our own feet than you think. Hard to say how long, but, I don't think the tank will be empty in 30 years.

Stocks/Investents....I agree with you. I am an index guy, and will not pay some high priced fund mgr. 5-10% to "manage" my money. Just good old, well diversified, index funds. Very low cost, and the indexes normally outperform active mgrs. over the long haul. But, it is fun to play with some ETF's, or speculative stocks. Kind of like a trip to the casino every so often. You can do REALLY REALLY well, or.......!!

John....I sure wish I owned the stocks you provided, but in my humble opinion, those will prove themselves to be flashes in the pan as we look back on them in the decades ahead. I invest in stocks for the long haul, and typically don't make bets on short term plays. But, a lot of guys make big money doing it. And, a lot of guys lose their arses doing it too.

Stocks like BP, or other more traditional oil stocks, have stood the test of time over many decades. So, their growth rates are not reflected in the quick snapshot of a relatively short term stock price. Can you imagine what thier share prices would be if you condensed that price into a one year period based on 100 years of price performance.

In fact, I believe AlGores family made a HUGE amount of money investing in Occidental Petroleum. When Al's old man died, he passed that fortune on to Jr. Why couldn't my dad have invested in Occidental.

I sure hope we someday find a truly viable alternative energy source to oil. I am not sure wind mills, and solar panels, are it. We will still need coal, oil, and gas for decades to come. I think one day, a private entrepruenur will find the magic key to a truly viable energy source, and he will become fabulously wealthy.   

Regardless, many of these alternative energy companies have gone belly up when govts lifeline is pulled off. You have managed to find a few who's stock price has done well. In fact, I think you missed your calling. You should be a stock broker   

Hansel wrote: davidg wrote: John....I shall always cherish my memories of having smores and beer at the camp fire with you, Dave and Hansel at GL this past summer... For sure! Looking forward to a repeat of this someday in the hopefully not too distant future. Happy New Year to you guys, and Dave give my best to Tom. I'm a little out of shape for these debates at the moment, but just to even the score I'll throw my weight behind John

Hansel.....Out of shape!?!?! Aren't you working in the carbon based oil fields of North Dakota, and doing your fair share to contribute to global warming, or is it climate change? You should be in great shape! Good to hear from you. I will tell Tom you said Hey! I sure enjoyed that day we all skied or boarded at GL. I know you must have been very impressed with my combo skiing ability.

Hope you are doing well up in the Dakotas!

PS: Please tell me you have a LITTLE disagreement with John's statement that alternative energies are booming!! I thought they were all going bankrupt having to compete without suckling from the teet of govt.

It is so cold with the polar vortex that Obama was seen with his hand stuck in HIS OWN pocket today.

John....I shall always cherish my memories of having smores and beer at the camp fire with you, Dave and Hansel at GL this past summer, but......

Financial Meltdown: At the root of the problem were bad mortgages given to people who couldn't afford them as part of a govt initiative/mandates to banks. The housing industry collapsed, and dragged everything down. Thank you liberal economic policies/social justice.

Stock Market Doubling: You got me on this one. I appreciate that it has, BUT, it has been fueled by Quantitative Easing (QE 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6, etc, etc). People pour easy money into the highest return assests....stocks. Inflation hangover coming down the road. A major component of Income Inequality (which is the Left's new talking point. And, it has been caused by their own policies.     

One War Ended: Al Quaeda has re-taken Felujah, and Ramadi(sp) in Iraq. I thought Al Quaeda was decimated. Hmmmm! Interesting. We should have left a large contingent in place to protect our gains.

Healthcare Costs Down: The govt paying providers less (will cause doc shortages in the future), and a sour economy causing people to put off non emergency procedures. The HC system starting to look like Medicaid. We are only a week into O-care. Let's talk a few months down the road. Insurance industry bailout just around the corner.

Alternative Energy Booming: Say WHAT??? What you smokin' Willis? You must mean carbon based energy boom....as in North Dakota where the unemployment rate is ~3% and McD's workers knocking down $100K.

Voters: Who wouldn't vote for Santa Claus? Food stamp usage and Social Security disability roles sky rocketing. Can you say Gov't Dependency? Sure you can! Let's talk in November. You may want to say bye bye to the Senate.

Isn't it funny how Obama is now pushing the "fair shot" and "income inequality" crappola. I wonder if anybody has whispered to him that his policies have been in place for the past five years, and he has caused this. So, he creates the problem, and now he will solve it?!? REALLY!!!

If the economy under Obama is so good, why are they trying to pass "emergency" legislation to continue unemployment benefits.

Probably Bush's fault!