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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OverMyHead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-29-2014 at 9:52pm
Originally posted by JoeinNY JoeinNY wrote:

Originally posted by OverMyHead OverMyHead wrote:

The econony shrunk 1% first quarter. More proof that Keynesian economics does not buy growth, it just rents it.


It proves that how? What Keynesian remedy was applied that somehow didnt work? Do you have any idea what you are talking about?


Joe I believe I do know what I am talking about. Here is the definitions of Keynesian economics.

Keynesian economics was developed by the British economist John Maynard Keynes during the 1930s in an attempt to understand the Great Depression. Keynes advocated increased government expenditures and lower taxes to stimulate demand and pull the global economy out of the Depression. Subsequently, the term “Keynesian economics” was used to refer to the concept that optimal economic performance could be achieved – and economic slumps prevented – by influencing aggregate demand through activist stabilization and economic intervention policies by the government. Keynesian economics is considered to be a “demand-side” theory that focuses on changes in the economy over the short run.

I believe its safe to call Obama's spending increased from his predecessor, many call it government spending on steroids. We also had the payroll tax holiday. Put them together and that seems pretty darn Keynesian to me. Since my kids are going to be paying for Obama's "recovery" for most of their lives I was hoping they might at least get a little more bang for all those bucks and not go negative so quickly. Remember Regan inherited a worse economy and his first quarter growth for his 6th year (That year had winter too) was +3.8 I don't think this winter was so cold it would make a 4.8 percent difference.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OverMyHead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-29-2014 at 10:03pm
Originally posted by Hansel Hansel wrote:


Originally posted by Fox Business Fox Business wrote:

"The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years as it buckled under the weight of a severe winter*, but there are signs activity has since rebounded."

"Economists estimate severe weather could have chopped off as much as 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth.* The government, however, gave no details on the impact of the weather."

*emphasis added


All those Keynesians and their darned Polar Vortex!



Tell me again Jamin, Is the planet supposed to be to cold or too warm? I get so confused when the left plays the climate from both sides.

(You can't tell me you did not see that coming)

Again giving Obama back that full 1.5% and he is still 3.3 behind Regan's supply side approach. Considering what was spent, even a .5% growth is terribly disappointing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OverMyHead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-29-2014 at 10:12pm
Alan. I am glad to here things are going well. Construction here is better, but we even with a lot of our former competition out of the industry, we still are not booked out that far. we used to laugh at people want to book us with a month lead time, now we jump on 1800 square foot flooring jobs with a few days notice so long as the materials are in town. I still am not confident there is not a double dip coming. It seems we did not learn from the last housing bubble and are just re-inflating it again.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 81nautique Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-29-2014 at 11:58pm
I can't live in fear of things beyond my control Dave. If there's another dip coming I'm here working my ass off so I can get through it like the last one.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JoeinNY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 12:36am
Holy bull***************... reagan a supply sider, sure except that he invented deficit spending...

Total Government spending as a percentage of gdp has declined by 4.7 percent from between 2009 and 2013, pretty sure a dip in the 4th quarter of last year cannot mean what you say it means.

If you are worried about what your kids are going to pay for you can start with reagans unfunded cold war, then move directly to gwb's tax cuts, then gwbs two wars that he didnt fund, then the global financial meltdown someone caused that required that stimulus spending back in 2009, which btw included mostly tax breaks cause that was what was demanded by who?    Show me the equations brother cause I dont think your wikipedia econ class is saying what you think it is...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OverMyHead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 10:01am
Joe, you are both wrong and right. Reagan did deficit spend, but that was at least temporary war spending, the cold war in this case. People were paid to produce, and we later received the peace dividend giving the opportunity to balance budgets during the Clinton years.

As for the supply side, government was cut by a real 5% (should have been more)which carried forward with baseline budgeting. Dropping tax rates in 1981 from 70% to 28% lead to increased tax revenues for 8 of the next ten years. The tax cuts paid for themselves with economic growth. The debt all came from the spending side.

Contrast that to Obama who payed of all his political allies, paid people not to work and funded shovel ready projects not so shovel ready and that is why we are now seeing negative growth where Reagen was seeing 3.8 positive
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JoeinNY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 12:21pm
Dave you are again just plain wrong, about everything. Total government spending as a percentage of GDP was 28.9 percent in 1979 and 30.7 percent in 1988... so yeah not a real cut of 5%.

Reagan also had to raise taxes in his second term to actually see those increases in revenue you were talking about. If Obama had reagans tax rates in place his revenue would look pretty good as well ...

Reaganomics was a proven failure, nothing but reverse robin hood run up the deficit nonsense. No revisionist history will ever prove otherwise to someone that understands economics and can do math. For all your talk about climate change studies that do take into account all relevent natural factors being wrong because you assume they don't even though you didnt actually check you seem to want to find a simplistic cause and effect relationship on economic output to how much like the person who occupies the office of the presidency without taking any other factor into account. Even then you seem to need to make up numbers to make it happen. Stick to your day job, I am sure you are better at installing flooring than economics or climate change science.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Riley Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 1:15pm
My propaganda meter is pegging. No dyed in the wool Democrat is ever going to say anything good about Regan, but being 23 when he got elected I can tell you he pulled this country up out of a deep slump and the 1980's were good times from my perspective, far better than the 1990's which sucked for me despite what the media constantly said during that time. Regan was a good leader. The Cold War stated in the 1950's long before Regan and while he gets credit for winning it, it appears it is starting up again.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davidg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 1:31pm
I did hear about the GDP being revised downward into negative growth range. I think I saw it on CNN or MSNBC. Two quarters in a row of negative growth are considered to be recessionary.

I think that Obama's economic polices (central planning) are putting a damper on the economy. I also think Obamacare is causing a lot of uncertainty as well. I know that the company I work for has seen better 1st quarters than the one we had this year. So, not too surprised by the downward revision.

I am really surprised nobody has mentioned the VA scandal. The VA is the epitome of government run healthcare. It is total government run healthcare! I heard on the news that they are having some issues right now. Something about 40 vets dying in Phoenix waiting for care, and phony waiting lists. But, admittedly, I will have to wait for the final government report to come out to fully understand exactly what happened. Is this what Obamacare will be?   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JoeinNY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 2:08pm
Ronnie was miles better than gwb, but his policies of deregulation and taxation, long with his deficit spending have had pretty horrific long term effects. In terms of real progress of the middle class the eighties was the turningpoint and the beginning of the downward slide.   In many ways he cashed in on the hard work done by the greatest generation and blew what was years of work and investment in a decade.   Certainly this was not all Reagans fault, and again the nonsense that is advocated in his name these days is ridiculous but judging the policies of a president only by the effects that we see during his/her presidency is the exact type of short sightedness that has gotten us to our current levels of debt and deficit. If we judge solely by federal tax rates Reagan was considerably more liberal than Obama is…

My issue remains someone declaring that Economics doesn’t work based on a simplistic understanding of made up facts… then moving to deify Reagan based on wrong “facts” again without any nuance of additional factors like say massive debt, unmaintained infrastructure, and a systemic redistribution of wealth from the workers to the inheritors.    

If we really wanted a more relevant comparison upon which to make an assessment on the relative merits of Keynesian solutions vs. the more austerian solutions being proposed by the so called conservatives one would look at the economic growth rate in the US in the post global financial meltdown period where we had a limited implementation of Keynesian stimulus vs. the European Union who went more with a strictly conservative solution. Both are developed economies existing in the same global market at the same time, and our growth rate has doubled theirs, the only real conclusion that could be reached by that data is that our only issue was in the half measured way we implemented our Stimulus. IE the vast majority of the stimulus went to people who have more money than they can spend and effectively return to the economy. We should have fixed the bridges and built more roads instead of extending the bush era tax cuts on those earning more than 200k… as that experiment had obviously already failed, as a result we only got mediocre growth and not only did we get more debt but we also didn’t get bridges or roads.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote M3Fan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by 81nautique 81nautique wrote:

I really hate to say anything on this thread although I do enjoy reading it but as far as business is concerned i do have a little input from a guy who owns a small business and lives in the trenches every day.

So, I always judge the economy by looking at what my customers are doing. I belong to many trade organizations in the building trades and attend several membership meetings/trade events monthly, everyone is busting at the seams with work. Housing starts are up so my clients from excavators, framers, roofers, electricians , plumbers, Hvac,etc,etc are all working. Landscaping is doing great because of the wet spring and they have money in their pockets because they plowed more snow this year than they have in the last 5. Park Districts and municipalities although still watching pennies are now expanding some of the programs that got chopped to pieces a few years ago, largely due to increased revenue from sales tax, ie, people are spending money and the tax revenue is finally coming back. I am now collecting and filing sales tax numbers like I was back in 2008.

I also do a lot of work for large marketing companies, people are finally advertising again and the work is coming in here by the skid load.

I run several employee recognition programs for businesses and employees are getting rewarded with swag and trinkets, the same swag and trinkets that no one purchased for the last 5 years because they didn't have the money. Businesses actually have budgets for this stuff again, maybe not as large but it's there.

My own employees are working 40 plus hours a week since February, before that they had not gotten more than 35 hours a week since 2008. This January we hired a consulting firm to come in and help us with our efficiency and marketing programs. Every single employee here now has an incentive plan and is making more money than they ever have.

Our April sales numbers were the highest they've been since July of 2008 and year to date sales are up 37% over 2013.

I watch the stock market and read and listen to far too much news and I've learned that someone will always find the down side if that's what they're looking for so I tune out the rhetoric and focus on what we know how to do. We watch every dime and run a tight ship just like all my clients that weathered the storm and are now reaping the benefits of insight and perseverance.

One of the downsides I do still see is that lending is very difficult, banks are still very demanding on lines of credit, commercial lending and commercial mortgages. I just had to refinance the building the business is in and I have never had to jump through so many hoops.

I've spent 20 years now in business and I've seen the cycle so many times and it is time to make money right now.


Alan, great insight as my company also serves a bunch of those industries. I've shared this with a couple people here at work, I really appreciate you typing it all out!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote john b Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 3:19pm
Alan, thanks for posting.
I am not surprised you are doing well, there is probably no one more deserving than you and your wife. I enjoyed the lunch visit and tour of your business some time back and was very impressed. You obviously pay the same attention to detail in your business that you did with the Hurricane.
Best wishes for continued success, keep your 1-1/2 thumbs safe, and may all of your ice fall into a glass of refreshing beverage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davidg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 5:13pm
I agree with Alan's comments as well, and applaud his efforts. The overall economy will do what it will do. We can't live in fear whenever there is bad news. Not much I can do to control it. However, I can do the best I can to knock on more doors, and kick over more stones in my little corner of the world of industrial material sales. And vote for politicians I think can do a better job with the economy.   

Oh, and also maybe spend some money now and then on new toys to try and do my part to stimulate the economy. I seem to have an affinity to red toys.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 81nautique Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 6:31pm
Originally posted by davidg davidg wrote:

I agree with Alan's comments as well, and applaud his efforts. The overall economy will do what it will do. We can't live in fear whenever there is bad news. Not much I can do to control it. However, I can do the best I can to knock on more doors, and kick over more stones in my little corner of the world of industrial material sales. And vote for politicians I think can do a better job with the economy.   

Oh, and also maybe spend some money now and then on new toys to try and do my part to stimulate the economy. I seem to have an affinity to red toys.



Thanks but I don't need any applause guys because every small businessman/entrepreneur still around is doing the same thing. All you can do is take care of what you have some control over. There are plenty of ways to make money, not all are fun and most require time, effort, investment and RISK but this is still the land of opportunity if you want to put your balls on the line you can still do very well.

You guys might not believe this because you all think i fart roses but my personality is quite volatile and I can fall into a rampage every single day if I let the glass half empty mentality take over. What lifts me is when I associate myself with people that are afraid of nothing. I am currently working on doing the printing for 2 national up and coming (we hope) garment lines, We will also be running the online store for a reality TV show that will be shooting their pilot program in a few months (it is boating related so you guys will love it and is being produced by the guy that does Fast and Loud so we really have high hopes for that one) and I'm doing the marketing/printing for a little tiny guy who makes a full line of hot sauces. All three are entreprenuers/dreamers that have a vision and need like minded people to get on board and make it happen.

There's a good chance all three of these guys along with my investment will fail but there's three more of them right around the corner with hopefully even better ideas, confidence, drive, luck, timing and a hefty set of balls. There are just so many opportunities but sitting in the back of the bus, or the rear of the lecture hall or the last pew in church is not going to get you anywhere, you gotta have your hands on the wheel and drive.

So I'm rambling again which is about all I can do in a political thread but I'm gonna have a cup of coffee, then I'm going to do my favorite thing and run month end invoicing, then I'm going out to dinner with my bride and tomorrow I'm going to go boating in my fancy ski boat and burn as much gas as I possibly can. I'll mow my lawn, wash my car, grill out with neighbors and If I don't die in the process I'm going to come in Monday morning and kick some ass so I can do it all again. This country sure can seem ***************ed up at times but tell me where you can do what we all do anywhere else.

And good for you on the toys Dave, stimulate away.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote OverMyHead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 7:13pm
Originally posted by Hansel Hansel wrote:



Originally posted by Fox Business Fox Business wrote:

"The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years as it buckled under the weight of a severe winter*, but there are signs activity has since rebounded."

"Economists estimate severe weather could have chopped off as much as 1.5 percentage points from GDP growth.* The government, however, gave no details on the impact of the weather."

*emphasis added





Hasn't the "cold causes shrinkage" excuse for inadequacy been a little over done???
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote john b Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 7:21pm
Does anyone else smell roses?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davidg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 7:46pm
Originally posted by 81nautique 81nautique wrote:

   Thanks but I don't need any applause guys because every small businessman/entrepreneur still around is doing the same thing. All you can do is take care of what you have some control over. There are plenty of ways to make money, not all are fun and most require time, effort, investment and RISK but this is still the land of opportunity if you want to put your balls on the line you can still do very well.

You guys might not believe this because you all think i fart roses but my personality is quite volatile and I can fall into a rampage every single day if I let the glass half empty mentality take over. What lifts me is when I associate myself with people that are afraid of nothing. I am currently working on doing the printing for 2 national up and coming (we hope) garment lines, We will also be running the online store for a reality TV show that will be shooting their pilot program in a few months (it is boating related so you guys will love it and is being produced by the guy that does Fast and Loud so we really have high hopes for that one) and I'm doing the marketing/printing for a little tiny guy who makes a full line of hot sauces. All three are entreprenuers/dreamers that have a vision and need like minded people to get on board and make it happen.

There's a good chance all three of these guys along with my investment will fail but there's three more of them right around the corner with hopefully even better ideas, confidence, drive, luck, timing and a hefty set of balls. There are just so many opportunities but sitting in the back of the bus, or the rear of the lecture hall or the last pew in church is not going to get you anywhere, you gotta have your hands on the wheel and drive.

So I'm rambling again which is about all I can do in a political thread but I'm gonna have a cup of coffee, then I'm going to do my favorite thing and run month end invoicing, then I'm going out to dinner with my bride and tomorrow I'm going to go boating in my fancy ski boat and burn as much gas as I possibly can. I'll mow my lawn, wash my car, grill out with neighbors and If I don't die in the process I'm going to come in Monday morning and kick some ass so I can do it all again. This country sure can seem ***************ed up at times but tell me where you can do what we all do anywhere else.

And good for you on the toys Dave, stimulate away.


Alan...I know you don't need, or ask for, the applause, but, I do admire the attitude. I wish you the best of luck with the new ventures. Sounds like you have some interstng things cooking that can pay off nicely. You are a true entrepreneur. I always wanted to be, but, I lacked the "hefty set of balls", or as I like to say....the "testicular fortitude"

By the way, I do not think your farts smell like roses, nor do I think you walk on water. I just think you know where the rocks are hidden!

PS: The stimulative effects of the tax burden on your 200 far outweighed the total expenditure of my old scoot. But, I do like rolling old skool.

PSS: Can't wait to see the reality show. Keep us posted.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 81nautique Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May-30-2014 at 8:11pm
Originally posted by davidg davidg wrote:



Alan...I know you don't need, or ask for, the applause, but, I do admire the attitude. I wish you the best of luck with the new ventures. Sounds like you have some interstng things cooking that can pay off nicely. You are a true entrepreneur. I always wanted to be, but, I lacked the "hefty set of balls", or as I like to say....the "testicular fortitude"



I'm more self employed than entrepreneur but I work with a lot of them and those are the people that have the ideas and the dreams. Most small business owners are victims of circumstance and timing and that's the reason they are in business not out of a grand design. An entrepreneur has a vision, turns it into a reality, cashes out and moves on to the next opportunity. They need guys like me to do the hands on work but that's ok because that's what I do, I get stuff done.

ps. the guy with the biggest balls doesn't always win.
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